tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Salt Lake City); 4 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2317 at 18:45, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2317 Delta Flight history → SLC 18:45 BNA 23:05 30% 6% 0.1% 82%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 20:08 → SFO 21:10UA 2097 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 23:59 → BNA 06:37 +1UA 1815 9h 29m 91% 70%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665 3h 15m Seattle SEA 23:15 → BNA 05:40 +1AS 382 9h 56m 100% 65%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 20:50 → SMF 21:30WN 3757 1h 36m Sacramento SMF 23:06 → BNA 05:13 +1WN 3895 7h 23m 80% 60%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 21:20 → LAS 21:45WN 3745 2h 01m Las Vegas LAS 23:46 → BNA 05:22 +1WN 4088 7h 02m 82% 60%
UnitedDetails → SLC 16:15 → ORD 20:33UA 1963 1h 16m Chicago ORD 21:49 → BNA 23:36UA 314 6h 21m 90% 58%
DeltaDetails → SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841 1h 55m Los Angeles LAX 18:31 → BNA 00:33 +1DL 858 7h 53m 94% 52%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 16:45 → DEN 18:15WN 3740 2h 12m Denver DEN 20:27 → BNA 00:00 +1WN 2922 6h 15m 89% 45%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 16:10 → DAL 19:45WN 3736 2h 00m Dallas DAL 21:45 → BNA 23:39WN 2189 6h 29m 90% 36%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 16:18 → ORD 20:40UA 2072 1h 09m Chicago ORD 21:49 → BNA 23:36UA 314 6h 18m 68% 44%
AmericanDetails → SLC 16:56 → ORD 21:34AA 2780 1h 26m Chicago ORD 23:00 → BNA 00:43 +1AA 1224 6h 47m 54% 38%
UnitedDetails → SLC 17:57 → DEN 19:40UA 1910 52m Denver DEN 20:32 → BNA 00:17 +1UA 1287 5h 20m 32% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON