tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:30 pm at Salt Lake City); 1 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56% (calm day: 34%). Best bet: Southwest via Denver, leaving 16:45, 14% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3735 Southwest Flight history → SLC 23:35 BWI 05:40 24% 3% 0.2% 82%
WN 2213 Southwest SLC 13:51 BWI 19:56 42% 5% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 18:55 → SFO 20:04UA 5457 · flown by SkyWest 3h 03m San Francisco SFO 23:07 → BWI 07:37 +1UA 1646 10h 42m 94% 73%
DeltaDetails → SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 2h 13m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 7h 13m 95% 68%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 19:35 → DEN 21:05WN 3741 2h 45m Denver DEN 23:50 → BWI 05:15 +1WN 1501 7h 40m 92% 66%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244 2h 30m Detroit DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715 7h 28m 95% 62%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590 9h 04m 97% 52%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 14:40 → DEN 16:10WN 1478 2h 55m Denver DEN 19:05 → BWI 00:35 +1WN 1500 7h 55m 100% 52%
UnitedDetails → SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662 1h 42m Denver DEN 17:53 → BWI 23:30UA 1646 7h 02m 82% 45%
AmericanDetails → SLC 14:00 → DFW 17:50AA 2613 1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43AA 2251 7h 43m 81% 36%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SLC 16:10 → DAL 19:45WN 3736 56m Dallas DAL 20:41 → BWI 00:44 +1WN 247 6h 34m 50% 27%
UnitedDetails → SLC 16:15 → ORD 20:32UA 1963 48m Chicago ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675 6h 13m 20% 15%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 16:45 → DEN 18:15WN 3740 50m Denver DEN 19:05 → BWI 00:35 +1WN 1500 5h 50m 27% 14%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON