Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:53 pm at Salt Lake City); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2291 at 17:25, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2291 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	CVG 22:46	26%	9%	0.1%	88%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 22:05 → CVG 05:30 +1AS 298	8h 46m	91%	61%
Delta Details →	SLC 20:35 → LAX 21:29DL 1142	1h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → CVG 05:59 +1DL 458	7h 24m	78%	58%
Delta Details →	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	7h 08m	84%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SLC 16:18 → ORD 20:40UA 2072	49m Chicago	ORD 21:29 → CVG 23:46UA 1223	5h 28m	37%	26%
United Details →	SLC 16:15 → ORD 20:32UA 1963	48m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → CVG 23:52UA 2148	5h 37m	15%	11%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON