Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:09 pm at Salt Lake City); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4771 at 16:20, 43%.

Nonstops today


WN 4771 Southwest	SLC 16:20	DAL 20:01	43%	9%	0.3%	no record
WN 3736 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 16:10	DAL 19:45	46%	8%	0.3%	43%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SLC 14:40 → DEN 16:10WN 1478	2h 15m Denver	DEN 18:25 → DAL 21:35WN 1521	5h 55m	100%	52%
Southwest Details →	SLC 16:45 → DEN 18:15WN 3740	2h 10m Denver	DEN 20:25 → DAL 23:30WN 1523	5h 45m	90%	48%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 50m	90%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SLC 14:40 → DEN 16:10WN 1478	57m Denver	DEN 17:07 → DAL 20:07WN 2956	4h 27m	42%	21%
Southwest Details →	SLC 16:45 → DEN 18:15WN 3740	54m Denver	DEN 19:09 → DAL 22:09WN 1578	4h 24m	34%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON