Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:48 pm at Salt Lake City); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 847 at 17:30, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 847 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:30	IAD 23:29	26%	7%	0.3%	84%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 16:42 → LAX 17:53UA 5456 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 21:20 → IAD 05:26 +1UA 2632	10h 44m	100%	79%
United Details →	SLC 18:55 → SFO 20:04UA 5457 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m San Francisco	SFO 23:20 → IAD 07:48 +1UA 2111	10h 53m	95%	74%
Alaska Details →	SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665	2h 43m Seattle	SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367	9h 55m	91%	63%
United Details →	SLC 20:08 → SFO 21:10UA 2097	1h 55m San Francisco	SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083	9h 22m	79%	60%
United Details →	SLC 16:15 → ORD 20:32UA 1963	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 21:42 → IAD 00:35 +1UA 1922	6h 20m	79%	58%
Delta Details →	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	7h 10m	82%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SLC 20:08 → SFO 21:10UA 2097	1h 25m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → IAD 06:55 +1UA 2837	8h 47m	64%	48%
United Details →	SLC 16:18 → ORD 20:40UA 2072	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 2766	6h 27m	58%	44%
Frontier Details →	SLC 20:18 → LAS 21:00F9 1507	1h 43m Las Vegas	LAS 22:43 → IAD 06:14 +1F9 3494	7h 56m	73%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON