Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:37 pm at Salt Lake City); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 3797 at 22:50, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 3797 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 22:50	OAK 23:50	13%	4%	0.1%	95%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SLC 16:00 → SEA 17:16AS 734	3h 31m Seattle	SEA 20:47 → OAK 22:56AS 1393	7h 56m	99%	53%
Southwest Details →	SLC 16:10 → DAL 19:45WN 3736	1h 50m Dallas	DAL 21:35 → OAK 23:15WN 843	8h 05m	84%	40%
Southwest Details →	SLC 16:45 → DEN 18:15WN 3740	3h 35m Denver	DEN 21:50 → OAK 23:30WN 1650	7h 45m	97%	38%
Alaska Details →	SLC 18:06 → SAN 19:16AS 3019 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m San Diego	SAN 21:01 → OAK 22:41AS 2285 · flown by Horizon	5h 35m	85%	28%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SLC 21:20 → LAS 21:45WN 3745	1h 02m Las Vegas	LAS 22:47 → OAK 00:25 +1WN 2138	4h 05m	54%	28%
Alaska Details →	SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665	47m Seattle	SEA 20:47 → OAK 22:56AS 1393	5h 12m	36%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON