tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:10 pm at Sacramento)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46% (calm day: 29%). Best bet: Southwest via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:50, 37% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3622 Southwest Flight history → SMF 21:40 BWI 05:35 38% 12% 0.2% 83%worse than usual
WN 3907 Southwest SMF 21:50 BWI 05:51 39% 12% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Los Angeles LAX 23:08 → BWI 07:17 +1UA 1605 9h 30m 100% 71%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 18:05 → LAS 19:35WN 3786 2h 40m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → BWI 05:46 +1WN 2264 8h 41m 92% 60%
UnitedDetails → SMF 20:29 → SFO 21:47UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m San Francisco SFO 23:07 → BWI 07:38 +1UA 1646 8h 09m 76% 55%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 17:55 → PHX 20:00WN 3231 2h 30m Phoenix PHX 22:30 → BWI 05:48 +1WN 3367 8h 53m 93% 50%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 19:00 → ONT 20:20WN 480 1h 20m Ontario ONT 21:40 → BWI 05:30 +1WN 3143 7h 30m 79% 49%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 17:25 → SAN 18:55WN 4774 2h 55m San Diego SAN 21:50 → BWI 05:44 +1WN 3632 9h 19m 95% 49%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 18:10 → SAN 19:40WN 3509 2h 00m San Diego SAN 21:40 → BWI 05:35 +1WN 3486 8h 25m 90% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 20:29 → SFO 21:47UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 53m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:10 +1UA 1340 7h 41m 56% 42%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 19:50 → SLC 22:30WN 3828 1h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 23:35 → BWI 05:40 +1WN 3735 6h 50m 50% 37%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 18:50 → PDX 20:20WN 3813 1h 00m Portland PDX 21:20 → BWI 05:15 +1WN 3194 7h 25m 49% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON