Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:41 pm at Sacramento); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 16:19, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 16:19 → DEN 19:45UA 566	1h 25m Denver	DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253	6h 22m	88%	55%
Alaska Details →	SMF 20:34 → SEA 22:39AS 403	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 23:57 → IAH 06:20 +1AS 398	7h 46m	80%	55%
American Details →	SMF 14:55 → DFW 20:28AA 2634	2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:56 → IAH 00:14 +1AA 3023	7h 19m	80%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON