Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:04 pm at Santa Ana)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33% (calm day: 23%). Best bet: United via SFO, leaving 18:20, 74% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SNA 18:20 → SFO 19:51UA 2657	3h 16m San Francisco	SFO 23:07 → BWI 07:38 +1UA 1646	10h 18m	98%	74%
Southwest Details →	SNA 16:55 → SJC 18:15WN 3864	3h 25m San Jose	SJC 21:40 → BWI 05:46 +1WN 3801	9h 51m	100%	63%
Alaska Details →	SNA 17:28 → SEA 20:14AS 774	1h 22m Seattle	SEA 21:36 → BWI 05:41 +1AS 781	9h 13m	86%	62%
United Details →	SNA 19:27 → SFO 21:05UA 5339 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m San Francisco	SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:10 +1UA 1340	8h 43m	80%	61%
Southwest Details →	SNA 17:00 → LAS 18:10WN 2187	4h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 2208	9h 45m	100%	60%
Southwest Details →	SNA 17:00 → DEN 20:20WN 1538	3h 30m Denver	DEN 23:50 → BWI 05:15 +1WN 1501	9h 15m	86%	59%
Southwest Details →	SNA 17:15 → PHX 18:35WN 4514	3h 55m Phoenix	PHX 22:30 → BWI 05:48 +1WN 3367	9h 33m	98%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON