Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:17 am at Santa Ana); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1312 at 12:25, 48%.

Nonstops today


WN 1312 Southwest	SNA 12:25	DAL 17:25	48%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SNA 14:25 → SMF 15:50WN 3870	2h 26m Sacramento	SMF 18:16 → DAL 23:37WN 2876	7h 12m	100%	64%
Southwest Details →	SNA 11:20 → PHX 12:45WN 3329	2h 49m Phoenix	PHX 15:34 → DAL 20:00WN 3376	6h 40m	97%	55%
Southwest Details →	SNA 13:38 → LAS 14:53WN 580	3h 02m Las Vegas	LAS 17:55 → DAL 22:45WN 2220	7h 07m	94%	52%
Delta Details →	SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	8h 10m	77%	38%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SNA 12:50 → OAK 14:20WN 4986	55m Oakland	OAK 15:15 → DAL 20:40WN 4046	5h 50m	68%	42%
Southwest Details →	SNA 11:20 → PHX 12:45WN 3329	49m Phoenix	PHX 13:34 → DAL 18:00WN 49	4h 40m	64%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON