tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:23 am at Santa Ana); 2 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 13:08, is the safest bet: 46% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2186 United Flight history → SNA 21:15 EWR 05:33 21% 6% 0.9% 90%worse than usual
UA 1559 United Flight history → SNA 12:29 EWR 20:56 55% 19% 0.9% 64%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:50UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698 10h 39m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 17:28 → SEA 20:14AS 774 2h 26m Seattle SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314 10h 31m 95% 71%
AmericanDetails → SNA 12:32 → PHX 14:01AA 2454 2h 09m Phoenix PHX 16:10 → EWR 23:59AA 1967 8h 27m 96% 66%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 18:09 → PDX 20:31AS 589 1h 00m Portland PDX 21:31 → EWR 05:59 +1AS 1631 8h 50m 78% 65%
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 3h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 9h 57m 99% 64%
UnitedDetails → SNA 18:20 → SFO 19:51UA 2657 2h 44m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → EWR 07:00 +1UA 1141 9h 40m 96% 63%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:50 → MSP 18:33DL 2061 1h 42m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 8h 06m 87% 62%
UnitedDetails → SNA 11:58 → IAH 17:20UA 2050 2h 35m Houston IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444 9h 39m 93% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26UA 1352 1h 04m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 7h 43m 60% 44%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 18:46 → SEA 21:34AS 454 1h 06m Seattle SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314 9h 13m 59% 44%
DeltaDetails → SNA 14:00 → ATL 21:38DL 329 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 7h 58m 54% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON