Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: DL 556 at 21:00, 18%.

Safest bet today DL 556 SNA 21:00 → JFK 05:27 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2459 SNA 11:40 → JFK 19:58 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 556 Delta Flight history →	SNA 21:00	JFK 05:27	18%	10%	2.1%	89%
AA 459 American	SNA 10:03	JFK 17:46	55%	17%	1.4%	no record
AA 2683 American Flight history →	SNA 11:48	JFK 20:29	58%	19%	1.4%	67%worse than usual
AA 2459 American Flight history →	SNA 11:40	JFK 19:58	60%	18%	1.4%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON