Today: WN 2341 at 12:10 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–52%.

Safest bet today WN 2341 SNA 12:10 → LAS 13:25 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3738 SNA 16:23 → LAS 17:46 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2341 Southwest	SNA 12:10	LAS 13:25	33%	9%	0.3%	no record
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:59	LAS 21:17	33%	9%	0.8%	83%worse than usual
WN 269 Southwest	SNA 20:51	LAS 22:06	35%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 2307 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 20:45	LAS 21:55	38%	7%	0.5%	74%worse than usual
WN 3739 Southwest	SNA 13:25	LAS 14:40	39%	9%	0.3%	no record
WN 1783 Southwest	SNA 18:24	LAS 19:39	40%	8%	0.4%	no record
WN 3130 Southwest	SNA 19:45	LAS 20:55	42%	8%	0.4%	no record
WN 580 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 13:38	LAS 14:53	45%	10%	0.3%	60%
WN 2424 Southwest	SNA 16:18	LAS 17:33	45%	10%	0.4%	no record
WN 2187 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 17:00	LAS 18:10	46%	10%	0.4%	57%
WN 2184 Southwest	SNA 14:35	LAS 15:45	50%	10%	0.3%	no record
F9 3738 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 16:23	LAS 17:46	52%	30%	1.0%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON