Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:03 pm at St Louis); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3918 at 20:35, 42%.

Nonstops today


WN 3918 Southwest Flight history →	STL 20:35	FLL 00:20	42%	15%	0.1%	58%
WN 4100 Southwest	STL 19:55	FLL 23:46	45%	14%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STL 18:13 → CLT 21:11AA 2731	1h 25m Charlotte	CLT 22:36 → FLL 00:47 +1AA 321	5h 34m	82%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	STL 18:58 → ATL 21:44DL 1393	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	4h 41m	66%	26%
Frontier Details →	STL 18:34 → ATL 21:37F9 4474	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:42 → FLL 00:42 +1F9 2174	5h 08m	52%	13%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON