tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:22 pm at St Louis); 4 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60% (calm day: 39%). Best bet: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 18:05, 21% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4556 Southwest Flight history → STL 22:50 LAX 00:45 45% 18% 0.1% 44%
WN 4082 Southwest STL 21:56 LAX 23:55 60% 19% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → STL 17:37 → PDX 19:47AS 1538 1h 40m Portland PDX 21:27 → LAX 23:56AS 1389 8h 19m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → STL 17:36 → MSP 19:15DL 3185 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103 8h 17m 95% 70%
AmericanDetails → STL 17:58 → ORD 19:59AA 4537 · flown by Republic 2h 31m Chicago ORD 22:30 → LAX 00:52 +1AA 1209 8h 54m 92% 60%
UnitedDetails → STL 18:30 → IAH 20:50UA 6284 · flown by Mesa 1h 13m Houston IAH 22:03 → LAX 23:38UA 2215 7h 08m 78% 50%
SouthwestDetails → STL 18:15 → BNA 19:20WN 694 3h 26m Nashville BNA 22:46 → LAX 01:14 +1WN 362 8h 59m 100% 50%
SouthwestDetails → STL 18:05 → PHX 19:15WN 4615 3h 38m Phoenix PHX 22:53 → LAX 00:20 +1WN 250 8h 15m 94% 49%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → LAX 00:30 +1DL 575 9h 35m 97% 48%
UnitedDetails → STL 16:48 → DEN 18:23UA 1483 2h 57m Denver DEN 21:20 → LAX 22:55UA 531 8h 07m 81% 47%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → STL 17:48 → PHL 21:10AA 2714 55m Philadelphia PHL 22:05 → LAX 00:50 +1AA 738 9h 02m 46% 29%
FrontierDetails → STL 20:08 → DEN 21:44F9 4567 54m Denver DEN 22:38 → LAX 00:13 +1F9 4339 6h 05m 36% 21%
UnitedDetails → STL 17:59 → ORD 19:30UA 1639 48m Chicago ORD 20:18 → LAX 22:55UA 2499 6h 56m 20% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON