Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:28 pm at Tulsa)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 6366 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 15:21	LAX 16:55	16%	4%	0.2%	97%worse than usual
OO 6286 SkyWest	TUL 17:06	LAX 18:42	24%	5%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 16:59 → IAH 18:54UA 4290 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 09m Houston	IAH 22:03 → LAX 23:38UA 2215	8h 39m	96%	61%
United Details →	TUL 15:43 → IAH 17:24UA 5301 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Houston	IAH 19:50 → LAX 21:26UA 483	7h 43m	97%	58%
United Details →	TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Denver	DEN 21:20 → LAX 22:55UA 531	7h 45m	96%	56%
American Details →	TUL 19:20 → ORD 21:18AA 4057 · flown by Envoy	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → LAX 00:52 +1AA 1209	7h 32m	86%	56%
American Details →	TUL 18:02 → PHX 18:40AA 3826 · flown by Envoy	1h 58m Phoenix	PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204	6h 05m	92%	48%
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → LAX 00:30 +1DL 575	9h 42m	97%	48%
American Details →	TUL 18:33 → DFW 19:58AA 4133 · flown by Envoy	2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:44 → LAX 00:04 +1AA 2038	7h 31m	88%	34%
American Details →	TUL 16:13 → DFW 17:33AA 2851	2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:27 → LAX 21:43AA 2931	7h 30m	95%	33%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	55m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → LAX 22:32DL 331	7h 44m	66%	23%
American Details →	TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA	1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:38 → LAX 19:55AA 2043	6h 06m	62%	21%
American Details →	TUL 16:13 → DFW 17:33AA 2851	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → LAX 19:45AA 2766	5h 32m	47%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON