Today: WN 25 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–66%.

Safest bet today WN 25 BWI 09:40 → DAL 11:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4377 DCA 20:35 → DAL 22:55 · 66% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 25 Southwest	BWI 09:40	DAL 11:50	22%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 290 Southwest	DCA 11:01	DAL 13:19	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2387 Southwest	DCA 10:50	DAL 12:50	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1894 Southwest	DCA 13:01	DAL 15:18	28%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1618 American Flight history →	DCA 10:00	DFW 12:21	30%	6%	1.3%	80%
WN 179 Southwest	DCA 14:00	DAL 16:10	31%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2330 Southwest	BWI 13:41	DAL 16:01	31%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 1863 American Flight history →	IAD 19:36	DFW 21:54	33%	9%	0.6%	70%
AA 1906 American Flight history →	IAD 11:59	DFW 14:17	33%	9%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
AA 795 American Flight history →	DCA 09:58	DFW 12:22	33%	6%	1.3%	90%worse than usual
AA 1904 American Flight history →	IAD 19:31	DFW 21:50	35%	9%	0.6%	51%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	IAD 12:41	DFW 15:05	36%	9%	0.3%	79%worse than usual
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	36%	10%	0.4%	72%
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DCA 15:13	DFW 17:44	37%	8%	1.1%	82%worse than usual
WN 4556 Southwest	DCA 20:11	DAL 22:30	38%	11%	0.6%	no record
AA 524 American Flight history →	IAD 15:16	DFW 17:34	38%	9%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DCA 13:44	DFW 16:11	38%	8%	1.2%	78%worse than usual
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DCA 12:02	DFW 14:26	39%	7%	1.2%	76%worse than usual
WN 986 Southwest	BWI 19:06	DAL 21:26	39%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 1031 Southwest	BWI 19:30	DAL 21:40	39%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 989 Southwest	BWI 15:31	DAL 17:51	39%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 1158 American Flight history →	DCA 19:08	DFW 21:34	40%	10%	1.0%	61%
AA 2314 American Flight history →	BWI 11:58	DFW 14:26	42%	9%	0.9%	72%worse than usual
F9 3787 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 14:25	DFW 16:58	42%	16%	1.3%	69%worse than usual
AA 2669 American	BWI 16:19	DFW 18:47	42%	13%	0.8%	no record
F9 1475 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:18	DFW 15:48	42%	19%	1.2%	68%worse than usual
WN 665 Southwest	DCA 17:36	DAL 19:54	43%	14%	0.7%	no record
AA 1213 American Flight history →	BWI 19:12	DFW 21:40	43%	10%	0.7%	61%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DCA 17:11	DFW 19:41	44%	9%	1.1%	65%
WN 1403 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 17:10	DAL 19:20	45%	13%	0.7%	27%
AA 2747 American Flight history →	BWI 12:00	DFW 14:27	46%	8%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
F9 4559 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 12:21	DFW 14:48	46%	19%	1.4%	70%worse than usual
AA 1626 American Flight history →	BWI 19:17	DFW 21:42	46%	11%	0.7%	52%
AA 1629 American Flight history →	BWI 15:46	DFW 18:12	48%	11%	0.8%	57%
WN 991 Southwest	BWI 20:39	DAL 23:00	58%	19%	0.8%	no record
WN 4377 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 20:35	DAL 22:55	66%	25%	0.8%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON