Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:43 am at Washington); 12 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Today: UA 1689 at 12:36 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–35%.

Safest bet today UA 1689 IAD 12:36 → LAX 15:08 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4971 BWI 20:20 → LAX 22:54 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1689 United Flight history →	IAD 12:36	LAX 15:08	13%	4%	0.4%	90%
UA 684 United Flight history →	IAD 15:15	LAX 17:47	15%	6%	0.4%	89%
UA 413 United Flight history →	IAD 20:15	LAX 22:52	17%	5%	0.4%	82%
UA 1385 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	LAX 00:57	20%	4%	0.4%	84%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:45	LAX 19:19	22%	6%	0.3%	75%
UA 1546 United Flight history →	BWI 19:23	LAX 21:52	23%	6%	0.2%	66%
UA 2276 United Flight history →	IAD 17:48	LAX 20:25	23%	6%	0.3%	71%
WN 1048 Southwest	BWI 15:20	LAX 17:52	24%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 2319 United	IAD 17:42	SNA 20:19	24%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 193 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:40	LAX 18:05	25%	5%	0.2%	38%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	LAX 20:41	29%	8%	0.3%	70%
WN 2165 Southwest	BWI 13:40	ONT 15:55	31%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 980 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:20	LAX 22:50	33%	9%	0.4%	47%
WN 4971 Southwest	BWI 20:20	LAX 22:54	35%	9%	0.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DCA 15:10 → MDW 16:15WN 4479	1h 25m Chicago	MDW 17:40 → LAX 19:59WN 1660	7h 49m	87%	66%
Delta Details →	BWI 19:09 → MSP 21:00DL 2565	59m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103	7h 44m	76%	62%
Southwest Details →	BWI 13:05 → DEN 14:55WN 937	1h 30m Denver	DEN 16:25 → SNA 17:55WN 4141	7h 50m	95%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON