Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: UA 689 at 22:33, 30%.

Safest bet today UA 689 IAD 22:33 → MCO 01:01 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 648 DCA 18:51 → MCO 21:09 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Weather 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 27 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 689 United Flight history →	IAD 22:33	MCO 01:01	30%	14%	1.0%	84%worse than usual
DL 1621 Delta	DCA 14:48	MCO 17:16	38%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 3062 Southwest	BWI 21:11	MCO 23:39	39%	14%	0.7%	no record
UA 2861 United	IAD 15:44	MCO 18:02	40%	24%	1.0%	no record
AA 2509 American Flight history →	DCA 13:55	MCO 16:30	42%	14%	0.9%	76%worse than usual
WN 1295 Southwest	BWI 14:29	MCO 16:59	43%	15%	0.7%	no record
UA 1101 United Flight history →	IAD 15:37	MCO 17:59	43%	23%	1.0%	62%
UA 2463 United Flight history →	IAD 17:22	MCO 19:45	48%	24%	1.0%	71%worse than usual
F9 4003 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 21:28	MCO 23:59	49%	32%	2.2%	59%
AA 2139 American Flight history →	DCA 20:07	MCO 22:31	50%	19%	0.9%	57%
WN 3416 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:50	MCO 22:25	52%	19%	0.7%	66%worse than usual
WN 4833 Southwest	DCA 16:30	MCO 18:55	55%	23%	0.7%	no record
WN 349 Southwest	BWI 19:16	MCO 21:44	55%	18%	0.7%	no record
F9 3663 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 15:21	MCO 17:53	55%	34%	1.8%	72%worse than usual
WN 3777 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:45	MCO 21:10	56%	22%	0.7%	55%worse than usual
WN 172 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:40	MCO 20:15	58%	22%	0.7%	47%
WN 671 Southwest	BWI 15:24	MCO 17:54	58%	23%	0.7%	no record
WN 9006 Southwest	BWI 17:31	MCO 20:01	58%	22%	0.7%	no record
B6 2523 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:55	MCO 21:17	58%	30%	0.9%	62%worse than usual
WN 648 Southwest	DCA 18:51	MCO 21:09	60%	23%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON