tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:33 pm at Albuquerque); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 13:33, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 2 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741 2h 57m Denver DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408 7h 59m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:21 → IAH 17:41UA 3986 · flown by Mesa 2h 32m Houston IAH 20:13 → IAD 00:05 +1UA 1968 7h 44m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 12:34 → IAH 15:24UA 6151 · flown by Mesa 1h 11m Houston IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 6h 12m 93% 69%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 16:20 → DEN 17:50UA 725 1h 23m Denver DEN 19:13 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 1412 6h 25m 84% 64%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 14:32 → DFW 17:26AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:21 → IAD 23:08AA 2254 6h 36m 95% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ABQ 16:36 → ATL 21:59DL 1109 54m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 6h 05m 69% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON