tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:00 am at Albuquerque); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:40, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ABQ 16:40 → SLC 18:26DL 3820 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 21:17 → MSP 00:53 +1DL 8803 7h 13m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 12:25 → SLC 14:11DL 4084 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935 7h 29m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 16:20 → DEN 17:50UA 725 3h 04m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 6h 39m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741 3h 42m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076 7h 17m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 12:24 → ORD 16:29UA 365 3h 28m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 8h 17m 100% 72%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 14:40 → DEN 16:05WN 120 3h 00m Denver DEN 19:05 → MSP 22:10WN 2677 6h 30m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 12:15 → LAX 13:22DL 4108 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198 7h 44m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:21 → IAH 17:41UA 3986 · flown by Mesa 2h 19m Houston IAH 20:00 → MSP 23:09UA 1872 7h 48m 94% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ABQ 12:13 → DFW 15:07AA 3371 · flown by Envoy 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:59 → MSP 18:23AA 2148 5h 10m 72% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON