Today: OH 5454 at 14:19 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–46%.

Safest bet today OH 5454 ALB 14:19 → DCA 15:14 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5032 ALB 17:30 → DCA 19:15 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


OH 5454 PSA	ALB 14:19	DCA 15:14	35%	13%	1.4%	no record
AA 2347 American Flight history →	ALB 15:32	DCA 16:59	39%	10%	0.2%	60%
AA 5501 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 19:08	DCA 20:51	40%	18%	1.2%	62%
AA 5032 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 17:30	DCA 19:15	46%	18%	1.3%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON