tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:31 pm at Albany); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 15:20, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ALB 15:20 → MDW 16:35WN 164 3h 10m Chicago MDW 19:45 → LGA 23:00WN 4120 7h 40m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → ALB 17:05 → DTW 18:58DL 3785 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 6h 35m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → ALB 16:23 → ORD 17:59UA 433 2h 08m Chicago ORD 20:07 → LGA 23:26UA 2827 7h 03m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → ALB 19:30 → IAD 21:03UA 4235 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 02m Dulles IAD 22:05 → LGA 23:30UA 3682 · flown by Republic 4h 00m 90% 66%
AmericanDetails → ALB 16:18 → CLT 18:27AA 440 3h 28m Charlotte CLT 21:55 → LGA 23:56AA 2031 7h 38m 90% 62%
AmericanDetails → ALB 17:30 → DCA 19:15AA 5032 · flown by PSA 2h 58m Washington DCA 22:13 → LGA 23:35AA 4719 · flown by Republic 6h 05m 87% 59%
UnitedDetails → ALB 17:08 → ORD 18:39UA 538 1h 06m Chicago ORD 19:45 → LGA 23:15UA 1655 6h 07m 77% 57%
AmericanDetails → ALB 19:08 → DCA 20:51AA 5501 · flown by PSA 1h 39m Washington DCA 22:30 → LGA 23:44AA 4660 · flown by Republic 4h 36m 80% 53%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ALB 19:08 → DCA 20:51AA 5501 · flown by PSA 1h 22m Washington DCA 22:13 → LGA 23:35AA 4719 · flown by Republic 4h 27m 74% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON