Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 186 Southwest	AMA 15:20	AUS 16:53	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2096 Southwest Flight history →	AMA 13:20	AUS 14:40	15%	5%	0.6%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	AMA 10:14 → DFW 11:35AA 3389 · flown by Envoy	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy	4h 46m	98%	81%
American Details →	AMA 10:30 → DFW 11:55AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:16 → AUS 16:21AA 3400 · flown by Envoy	5h 51m	99%	80%
Southwest Details →	AMA 10:05 → DAL 11:20WN 4076	2h 00m Dallas	DAL 13:20 → AUS 14:30WN 354	4h 25m	99%	78%
United Details →	AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Denver	DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026	5h 20m	93%	78%
Southwest Details →	AMA 05:30 → DAL 06:45WN 168	50m Dallas	DAL 07:35 → AUS 08:40WN 1265	3h 10m	96%	77%
United Details →	AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 28m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	6h 29m	99%	77%
American Details →	AMA 13:17 → DFW 14:39AA 3384 · flown by Envoy	2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:23 → AUS 18:31AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	5h 14m	95%	75%
Southwest Details →	AMA 15:10 → DAL 16:20WN 4333	3h 15m Dallas	DAL 19:35 → AUS 20:45WN 187	5h 35m	100%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON