Today: UA 2614 at 23:09 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–28%.

Safest bet today UA 2614 ANC 23:09 → DEN 06:26 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 173 ANC 22:25 → DEN 05:35 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2614 United Flight history →	ANC 23:09	DEN 06:26	17%	4%	0.2%	89%
AS 752 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 23:16	DEN 06:34	17%	3%	0.3%	91%
WN 173 Southwest Flight history →	ANC 22:25	DEN 05:35	28%	6%	0.2%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → DEN 23:44DL 2851	7h 32m	82%	52%
Alaska Details →	ANC 13:00 → SEA 17:34AS 402	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 19:00 → DEN 22:45AS 310	7h 45m	92%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON