Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:52 am at Aspen)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


OO 3840 SkyWest	ASE 07:33	ATL 13:07	17%	11%	1.3%	no record
DL 3924 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:30	ATL 13:04	20%	10%	1.3%	87%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ASE 08:32 → DEN 09:36UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	7h 58m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 16:40 → ATL 00:30 +1DL 471	10h 27m	94%	78%
United Details →	ASE 07:00 → IAH 10:47UA 5300 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m Houston	IAH 14:40 → ATL 17:54UA 1211	8h 54m	96%	78%
United Details →	ASE 12:39 → ORD 16:45UA 5956 · flown by SkyWest	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770	8h 51m	94%	78%
United Details →	ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Denver	DEN 10:08 → ATL 15:17UA 2806	5h 47m	88%	74%
American Details →	ASE 07:25 → ORD 11:31AA 6225 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Chicago	ORD 15:06 → ATL 18:17AA 3033	8h 52m	92%	69%
American Details →	ASE 11:22 → ORD 15:29AA 6386 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Chicago	ORD 18:59 → ATL 22:03AA 2779	8h 41m	94%	68%
United Details →	ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Denver	DEN 17:50 → ATL 22:56UA 248	7h 49m	90%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ASE 09:00 → ORD 13:04UA 4669 · flown by SkyWest	51m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ATL 17:10UA 356	6h 10m	57%	48%
Delta Details →	ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest	51m Los Angeles	LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715	7h 56m	61%	47%
United Details →	ASE 13:24 → IAH 17:22UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest	52m Houston	IAH 18:14 → ATL 21:30UA 2240	6h 06m	60%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON