Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: AA 6388 at 10:31, 26%.

Safest bet today AA 6388 ASE 10:31 → DFW 13:51 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest OO 6442 ASE 12:58 → DFW 16:08 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 6388 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 10:31	DFW 13:51	26%	16%	1.3%	72%
AA 6384 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 14:21	DFW 17:40	42%	16%	1.3%	68%
AA 4912 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 12:51	DFW 16:10	42%	18%	1.4%	77%worse than usual
OO 6442 SkyWest	ASE 12:58	DFW 16:08	48%	20%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON