Today: DL 3077 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet today DL 3077 ATL 08:15 → AVL 09:16 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 3071 ATL 19:37 → AVL 20:41 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3077 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	AVL 09:16	10%	2%	0.4%	90%
DL 573 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	AVL 11:08	15%	3%	0.4%	93%
DL 3059 Delta	ATL 10:00	AVL 11:09	16%	4%	0.4%	no record
DL 1182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:16	AVL 13:12	17%	3%	0.4%	87%
DL 3099 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	AVL 14:40	18%	3%	0.3%	85%
DL 2037 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:12	AVL 16:12	20%	3%	0.4%	83%
DL 3101 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:11	AVL 17:20	23%	3%	0.4%	82%
DL 3116 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:46	AVL 23:46	23%	5%	1.3%	82%
DL 3071 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:37	AVL 20:41	25%	4%	1.3%	80%
DL 5121 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 17:02	AVL 18:10	49%	23%	2.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON