Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 987 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 987 ATL 07:05 → BOS 09:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1396 ATL 17:10 → BOS 19:38 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 987 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:05	BOS 09:39	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2432 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	BOS 11:06	9%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 855 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	BOS 12:45	12%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 350 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:35	BOS 15:18	13%	5%	0.7%	77%
DL 862 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	BOS 13:47	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 726 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:58	BOS 16:44	14%	5%	0.7%	69%
DL 865 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	BOS 01:20	15%	4%	0.7%	80%
B6 1896 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 07:20	BOS 09:55	15%	5%	0.8%	80%
DL 1293 Delta	ATL 12:22	BOS 14:48	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2269 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	BOS 23:59	19%	5%	0.7%	63%
DL 821 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:15	BOS 21:00	19%	6%	0.7%	69%
DL 300 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:40	BOS 22:25	21%	6%	0.7%	70%
DL 2595 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	BOS 18:00	22%	6%	0.7%	66%
DL 518 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	BOS 19:30	22%	6%	0.7%	59%
B6 896 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 12:06	BOS 14:44	24%	12%	0.8%	64%
F9 3512 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:35	BOS 12:08	25%	10%	0.9%	75%
DL 9967 Delta	ATL 02:02	BOS 04:26	31%	9%	0.6%	no record
B6 1396 JetBlue	ATL 17:10	BOS 19:38	46%	19%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON