Today: DL 2850 at 23:10 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–33%.

Safest bet today DL 2850 ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 3179 ATL 17:39 → CHS 18:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	CHS 00:26	14%	3%	1.3%	82%
DL 2525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:05	CHS 23:19	15%	3%	1.2%	65%
DL 1663 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:51	CHS 22:07	19%	4%	1.2%	72%
DL 2493 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:27	CHS 20:42	22%	4%	1.2%	83%
DL 2179 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:31	CHS 13:42	22%	6%	0.7%	87%
DL 2174 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:59	CHS 17:16	25%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 1381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:40	CHS 15:53	25%	6%	0.8%	84%
DL 3107 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:46	CHS 12:00	26%	4%	0.7%	93%worse than usual
DL 3091 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:00	CHS 10:13	26%	4%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
DL 3179 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:39	CHS 18:54	33%	7%	0.7%	76%
DL 5450 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 07:40	CHS 09:00	6%	0%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON