Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 192 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 192 ATL 06:05 → DAL 07:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4763 ATL 21:30 → DAL 22:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 192 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 06:05	DAL 07:10	5%	2%	0.8%	93%
WN 4728 Southwest	ATL 06:32	DAL 07:45	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 441 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	DAL 09:21	13%	3%	0.8%	90%
WN 4394 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 08:55	DAL 10:05	14%	3%	0.7%	79%
DL 512 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:59	DAL 15:03	15%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 1115 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:15	DAL 11:24	16%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 2780 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:44	DAL 17:54	20%	3%	0.6%	79%
WN 194 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 14:10	DAL 15:20	20%	5%	0.6%	59%
DL 1104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	DAL 22:25	25%	4%	0.6%	82%
WN 4763 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 21:30	DAL 22:45	25%	8%	0.6%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON