Today: AA 4740 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet today AA 4740 ATL 06:14 → DCA 08:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5510 ATL 20:21 → DCA 22:12 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4740 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 06:14	DCA 08:12	9%	4%	0.6%	94%
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	DCA 09:16	12%	4%	0.6%	85%
AA 5501 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 06:00	DCA 07:59	14%	8%	1.8%	91%
YX 4576 Republic	ATL 14:13	DCA 16:18	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	DCA 11:27	18%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 4800 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 17:12	DCA 19:18	20%	6%	1.3%	68%
AA 5207 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 14:30	DCA 16:32	20%	13%	1.3%	71%
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:35	DCA 17:30	22%	5%	0.9%	58%
DL 537 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:59	DCA 23:52	23%	6%	0.9%	70%
AA 4733 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 20:22	DCA 22:20	24%	6%	1.2%	21%
DL 1798 Delta	ATL 10:59	DCA 12:46	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 950 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	DCA 18:37	25%	6%	0.9%	65%
AA 5050 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 08:58	DCA 10:59	26%	14%	1.2%	83%
DL 737 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	DCA 12:42	27%	6%	0.6%	81%
DL 325 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:55	DCA 20:47	27%	7%	0.9%	60%
WN 1357 Southwest	ATL 11:10	DCA 12:59	28%	4%	0.3%	no record
DL 378 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:55	DCA 22:48	28%	8%	0.9%	66%
WN 4990 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 20:50	DCA 22:50	28%	8%	0.7%	35%
DL 727 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	DCA 21:49	28%	6%	0.9%	57%
AA 5084 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 16:58	DCA 18:59	28%	14%	1.6%	25%
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:09	DCA 14:56	29%	10%	0.6%	72%
AA 3976 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATL 10:57	DCA 12:55	29%	8%	0.9%	73%
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	DCA 19:48	30%	8%	0.9%	59%
WN 1201 Southwest	ATL 21:10	DCA 22:59	30%	7%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4295 Envoy	ATL 11:15	DCA 13:12	31%	11%	0.9%	no record
AA 5320 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 09:06	DCA 10:57	31%	15%	1.3%	65%
WN 1358 Southwest	ATL 16:30	DCA 18:21	31%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 197 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 10:45	DCA 12:30	31%	5%	0.3%	46%
WN 2699 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 16:20	DCA 18:15	33%	7%	0.6%	49%
AA 5510 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 20:21	DCA 22:12	33%	17%	1.3%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON