Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2770 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 2770 ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3097 ATL 21:04 → DFW 22:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2770 American Flight history →	ATL 06:01	DFW 07:33	6%	3%	1.6%	91%
DL 839 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:40	DFW 08:54	14%	2%	0.9%	80%
AA 1567 American Flight history →	ATL 08:22	DFW 09:55	15%	4%	1.3%	87%
DL 961 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:52	DFW 11:12	18%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 921 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	DFW 15:45	18%	4%	0.7%	75%
DL 818 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	DFW 00:13	18%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 820 American Flight history →	ATL 11:25	DFW 12:56	18%	6%	1.0%	84%
AA 1358 American Flight history →	ATL 13:39	DFW 15:10	18%	5%	1.0%	74%
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:28	DFW 12:44	19%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 891 American Flight history →	ATL 11:21	DFW 12:50	19%	6%	1.0%	81%
AA 3390 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATL 09:43	DFW 11:13	19%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 1386 American Flight history →	ATL 15:02	DFW 16:35	21%	7%	1.0%	60%
DL 436 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	DFW 20:18	21%	5%	0.7%	67%
F9 3021 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 05:34	DFW 07:02	22%	9%	1.2%	69%
DL 3161 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	DFW 22:11	24%	4%	0.7%	55%
AA 1356 American Flight history →	ATL 16:16	DFW 17:49	24%	8%	1.3%	41%
DL 374 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:10	DFW 17:27	24%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 1376 American Flight history →	ATL 17:34	DFW 19:08	25%	6%	1.3%	43%
AA 1379 American Flight history →	ATL 20:05	DFW 21:36	28%	8%	1.2%	39%
F9 1269 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:53	DFW 12:27	33%	14%	1.2%	64%
F9 3097 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:04	DFW 22:35	37%	16%	1.2%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON