Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 299 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 299 ATL 06:07 → EWR 08:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1158 ATL 19:04 → EWR 21:28 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 299 United Flight history →	ATL 06:07	EWR 08:25	4%	2%	1.3%	91%
UA 2053 United Flight history →	ATL 07:15	EWR 09:33	7%	3%	1.2%	90%
DL 2325 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:10	EWR 09:24	8%	3%	1.3%	83%
DL 2397 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:18	EWR 10:29	9%	3%	1.3%	87%
UA 2289 United Flight history →	ATL 09:36	EWR 11:58	12%	4%	0.9%	90%
UA 1705 United Flight history →	ATL 09:26	EWR 11:44	14%	4%	0.9%	80%
DL 2401 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	EWR 12:21	15%	3%	1.2%	86%
UA 554 United Flight history →	ATL 11:05	EWR 13:31	16%	6%	0.9%	82%
DL 8840 Delta	ATL 10:03	EWR 12:06	18%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 1226 United Flight history →	ATL 12:40	EWR 15:01	18%	5%	0.9%	82%
F9 2282 Frontier	ATL 08:16	EWR 10:34	19%	9%	1.9%	no record
DL 2312 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:02	EWR 14:16	21%	5%	1.0%	72%
UA 1152 United Flight history →	ATL 19:37	EWR 22:04	22%	6%	0.8%	65%
DL 2322 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:09	EWR 15:24	22%	6%	1.0%	76%
UA 555 United Flight history →	ATL 16:25	EWR 18:54	23%	8%	0.9%	69%
DL 2552 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	EWR 00:58	23%	5%	0.9%	70%
UA 2763 United Flight history →	ATL 14:31	EWR 17:00	25%	8%	0.9%	73%
DL 2527 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:08	EWR 22:29	30%	8%	0.9%	65%
DL 2498 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:35	EWR 20:54	30%	8%	0.9%	56%
DL 2340 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:33	EWR 17:54	31%	8%	1.2%	66%
F9 4602 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:40	EWR 01:03	37%	21%	1.3%	56%
F9 1158 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 19:04	EWR 21:28	41%	21%	1.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON