Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1334 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–47%.

Safest bet that day DL 1334 ATL 07:00 → FLL 08:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2174 ATL 22:48 → FLL 00:44 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1334 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:00	FLL 08:51	6%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 1094 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	FLL 09:59	8%	2%	0.8%	88%
DL 1512 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	FLL 12:23	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 1271 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:06	FLL 11:03	12%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 1341 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:31	FLL 14:27	13%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 2063 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:25	FLL 13:20	13%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 1413 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	FLL 15:41	13%	3%	0.6%	73%
DL 2345 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	FLL 17:23	15%	4%	0.6%	68%
DL 1295 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:39	FLL 18:40	16%	4%	0.7%	70%
B6 1797 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 07:00	FLL 08:52	18%	7%	0.8%	88%
DL 1670 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	FLL 19:43	18%	4%	0.7%	63%
DL 1489 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:58	FLL 21:56	19%	4%	0.6%	67%
F9 2172 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:35	FLL 08:33	19%	6%	1.2%	76%
DL 1229 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:45	FLL 00:39	21%	5%	0.6%	69%
DL 1107 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:28	FLL 23:24	24%	4%	0.6%	62%
B6 517 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 09:10	FLL 11:06	31%	13%	0.7%	57%
B6 2097 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 12:49	FLL 14:40	35%	13%	0.7%	71%
F9 3014 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 14:53	FLL 16:54	38%	17%	1.3%	56%
B6 1697 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 21:40	FLL 23:35	41%	22%	0.7%	45%
F9 2174 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:48	FLL 00:44	47%	21%	1.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON