Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4729 at 06:30, 6%.

Safest bet that day WN 4729 ATL 06:30 → HOU 07:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 206 ATL 16:05 → HOU 17:15 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4729 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 06:30	HOU 07:35	6%	1%	0.7%	92%
WN 222 Southwest	ATL 06:05	HOU 07:19	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:41	HOU 09:45	15%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	HOU 12:10	18%	3%	0.8%	85%
WN 175 Southwest	ATL 09:50	HOU 11:02	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:12	HOU 16:22	22%	5%	0.8%	81%
WN 4914 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 09:30	HOU 10:35	22%	3%	0.7%	79%
WN 207 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 22:50	HOU 00:10	26%	6%	0.6%	63%
WN 3573 Southwest	ATL 15:15	HOU 16:29	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 2051 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	HOU 21:51	30%	6%	0.9%	73%
WN 206 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 16:05	HOU 17:15	33%	7%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON