Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2328 at 07:25, 16%.

Safest bet that day DL 2328 ATL 07:25 → JAX 08:36 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1550 ATL 17:52 → JAX 19:20 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2328 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	JAX 08:36	16%	3%	1.2%	89%
DL 2356 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:30	JAX 10:43	20%	3%	2.1%	89%
DL 2326 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	JAX 09:36	21%	3%	1.1%	89%worse than usual
DL 3024 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:37	JAX 13:45	22%	4%	1.9%	80%
DL 2923 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:48	JAX 12:00	22%	3%	1.9%	87%
DL 2990 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:57	JAX 15:09	30%	6%	2.1%	81%worse than usual
DL 2276 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	JAX 00:09	30%	8%	2.1%	76%
DL 2189 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:51	JAX 19:13	33%	9%	2.1%	64%
DL 2627 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	JAX 17:57	33%	8%	1.9%	72%
DL 2720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	JAX 16:27	33%	6%	1.6%	78%worse than usual
DL 2440 Delta	ATL 16:40	JAX 17:56	35%	7%	1.9%	no record
DL 1001 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:45	JAX 23:02	37%	10%	1.9%	69%
DL 2315 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	JAX 21:11	38%	9%	2.1%	57%
DL 2265 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:58	JAX 21:14	39%	9%	2.1%	71%
F9 1550 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:52	JAX 19:20	56%	16%	1.8%	55%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON