Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2420 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 2420 ATL 07:42 → JFK 10:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 520 ATL 19:04 → JFK 21:30 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2420 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:42	JFK 10:00	6%	2%	0.8%	90%
B6 320 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 06:10	JFK 08:30	9%	4%	1.0%	85%
DL 1575 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	JFK 16:29	13%	3%	0.7%	77%
DL 1034 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:44	JFK 12:00	15%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2378 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:55	JFK 19:48	15%	5%	0.7%	70%
DL 2380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	JFK 13:20	15%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 2398 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:45	JFK 21:29	15%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 2101 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:30	JFK 23:09	18%	5%	0.7%	47%
B6 1520 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 10:15	JFK 12:37	27%	9%	0.9%	74%
F9 4732 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:21	JFK 11:50	28%	10%	1.2%	74%
B6 920 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 14:36	JFK 17:00	37%	16%	0.9%	69%
B6 120 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 14:14	JFK 16:21	37%	16%	0.9%	68%
B6 520 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 19:04	JFK 21:30	41%	17%	0.9%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON