Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:40 pm at Atlanta); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44% (calm day: 33%). Best bet: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 20:10, 35% on time.

Nonstops today


DL 779 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:25	ONT 21:50	44%	7%	0.2%	71%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	8h 53m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	ATL 18:00 → PDX 20:24AS 783	1h 10m Portland	PDX 21:34 → ONT 23:59AS 534	8h 59m	79%	51%
United Details →	ATL 17:48 → IAH 18:41UA 3992 · flown by Mesa	1h 50m Houston	IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563	7h 07m	76%	49%
Southwest Details →	ATL 20:10 → LAS 21:30WN 210	1h 26m Las Vegas	LAS 22:56 → ONT 00:07 +1WN 4570	6h 57m	87%	46%
American Details →	ATL 18:49 → CLT 19:35AA 5067 · flown by PSA	1h 21m Charlotte	CLT 20:56 → ONT 23:12AA 2340	7h 23m	84%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ATL 20:10 → LAS 21:30WN 210	55m Las Vegas	LAS 22:25 → ONT 23:35WN 2135	6h 25m	64%	35%
American Details →	ATL 18:13 → PHX 19:25AA 3012	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 20:30 → ONT 21:43AA 1238	6h 30m	61%	30%
Southwest Details →	ATL 18:20 → DEN 19:40WN 3002	1h 07m Denver	DEN 20:47 → ONT 22:14WN 1713	6h 54m	54%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON