Today: DL 2338 at 21:54 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–37%.

Safest bet today DL 2338 ATL 21:54 → ORF 23:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 2984 ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 2338 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:54	ORF 23:44	20%	4%	0.8%	80%
DL 2925 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	ORF 12:47	22%	4%	0.3%	83%
DL 2755 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:46	ORF 11:28	23%	3%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
DL 2731 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:42	ORF 22:29	23%	5%	0.8%	68%
DL 2329 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:27	ORF 17:12	29%	4%	0.2%	75%
DL 1101 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:10	ORF 15:50	30%	4%	0.2%	74%
DL 1346 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:07	ORF 18:54	33%	5%	0.3%	69%
F9 3072 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:28	ORF 11:15	35%	14%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
DL 2984 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	ORF 21:42	37%	6%	0.3%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON