Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:51 pm at Atlanta)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 20:10, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Reno on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 391 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:57	RNO 21:42	36%	8%	0.3%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	3h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607	8h 52m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500	2h 29m Los Angeles	LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest	8h 30m	95%	70%
United Details →	ATL 17:50 → SFO 19:57UA 285	2h 48m San Francisco	SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757	9h 08m	95%	68%
United Details →	ATL 16:22 → DEN 18:06UA 235	2h 54m Denver	DEN 21:00 → RNO 22:26UA 2852	9h 04m	94%	63%
Southwest Details →	ATL 20:10 → LAS 21:30WN 210	1h 16m Las Vegas	LAS 22:46 → RNO 00:14 +1WN 4581	7h 04m	80%	56%
American Details →	ATL 17:34 → DFW 19:08AA 1376	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:32 → RNO 23:58AA 1273	9h 24m	86%	53%
American Details →	ATL 15:17 → DFW 16:14AA 3104	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:15 → RNO 19:42AA 3251	7h 25m	86%	52%
Alaska Details →	ATL 16:18 → SEA 18:46AS 218	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 20:52 → RNO 22:40AS 736	9h 22m	93%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ATL 18:13 → PHX 19:25AA 3012	1h 13m Phoenix	PHX 20:38 → RNO 22:25AA 1765	7h 12m	65%	39%
Southwest Details →	ATL 18:20 → DEN 19:40WN 3002	1h 15m Denver	DEN 20:55 → RNO 22:16WN 4257	6h 56m	60%	37%
American Details →	ATL 20:08 → DFW 21:36AA 2403	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:32 → RNO 23:58AA 1273	6h 50m	46%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON