Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 571 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 571 ATL 06:30 → SFO 08:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 1447 ATL 16:55 → SFO 19:18 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 571 United Flight history →	ATL 06:30	SFO 08:35	6%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 693 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	SFO 10:20	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 672 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	SFO 11:33	14%	5%	0.7%	70%
DL 750 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:59	SFO 14:50	15%	4%	0.7%	73%
DL 656 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	SFO 00:36	18%	5%	0.7%	70%
DL 823 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:35	SFO 17:31	20%	6%	0.7%	66%
UA 2866 United	ATL 18:03	SFO 20:19	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 285 United Flight history →	ATL 17:50	SFO 19:57	22%	6%	0.7%	42%
DL 545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	SFO 22:49	22%	6%	0.7%	60%
DL 517 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:08	SFO 20:05	23%	6%	0.7%	69%
DL 495 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	SFO 19:59	25%	6%	0.7%	51%
F9 1447 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:55	SFO 19:18	34%	12%	1.2%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 06:25 → DEN 07:30WN 2114	1h 05m Denver	DEN 08:35 → SFO 10:12WN 4303	6h 47m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	ATL 06:50 → STL 07:30WN 3937	1h 00m St Louis	STL 08:30 → SFO 10:49WN 4931	6h 59m	94%	79%
Southwest Details →	ATL 06:10 → LAS 07:15WN 209	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 08:25 → SFO 10:03WN 3778	6h 53m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON