Today: DL 1864 at 21:17 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–29%.

Safest bet today DL 1864 ATL 21:17 → XNA 22:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2771 ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1864 Delta	ATL 21:17	XNA 22:15	19%	6%	0.1%	no record
DL 5128 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 15:50	XNA 16:45	23%	5%	0.2%	77%
DL 1710 Delta	ATL 19:34	XNA 20:32	26%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 3747 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 23:03	XNA 00:04	26%	8%	0.3%	82%
DL 4441 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 22:49	XNA 23:50	27%	6%	0.4%	72%
DL 2771 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:14	XNA 18:05	29%	6%	0.1%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON