Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:10 am at Appleton); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 08:40, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops today


G4 1720 Allegiant	ATW 13:26	LAS 15:19	22%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 13:44 → LAS 15:43UA 704	9h 28m	100%	84%
United Details →	ATW 08:40 → DEN 10:26UA 255	3h 08m Denver	DEN 13:34 → LAS 14:45UA 493	8h 05m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	ATW 16:10 → MSP 17:40DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 18:59 → LAS 20:20DL 2246	6h 10m	89%	77%
United Details →	ATW 10:37 → ORD 11:59UA 4637 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 15:54 → LAS 17:57UA 1875	9h 20m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542	6h 43m	89%	75%
United Details →	ATW 12:34 → ORD 13:57UA 4757 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 16:30 → LAS 18:33UA 1215	7h 59m	97%	74%
United Details →	ATW 12:24 → ORD 13:46UA 4170 · flown by GoJet	2h 44m Chicago	ORD 16:30 → LAS 18:15UA 365	7h 51m	98%	72%
American Details →	ATW 16:14 → CLT 19:34AA 5516 · flown by PSA	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 22:32 → LAS 00:10 +1AA 1596	9h 56m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATW 17:29 → ORD 18:59UA 4633 · flown by SkyWest	51m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → LAS 21:59UA 2242	6h 30m	70%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON