Today: WN 777 at 11:24 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet today WN 777 AUS 11:24 → ABQ 12:24 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 187 AUS 21:10 → ABQ 22:10 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 777 Southwest	AUS 11:24	ABQ 12:24	17%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 4881 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 14:50	ABQ 15:40	23%	6%	0.1%	62%
WN 164 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 18:05	ABQ 19:05	23%	6%	0.1%	100%worse than usual
WN 249 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 22:25	ABQ 23:20	24%	8%	0.2%	76%
WN 187 Southwest	AUS 21:10	ABQ 22:10	31%	8%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON