Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2098 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 2098 AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 638 AUS 18:42 → BOS 23:50 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2098 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:20	BOS 12:29	15%	5%	0.7%	88%
WN 1898 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 11:40	BOS 16:40	22%	5%	0.5%	64%
DL 1297 Delta Flight history →	AUS 17:45	BOS 22:55	22%	10%	0.6%	57%
DL 1156 Delta Flight history →	AUS 14:30	BOS 19:42	22%	10%	0.6%	56%
B6 1238 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 14:15	BOS 19:02	39%	16%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
B6 638 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 18:42	BOS 23:50	39%	19%	0.7%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274	50m Dallas	DAL 07:30 → BOS 12:00WN 324	5h 25m	97%	77%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:08 → BOS 11:40AA 1438	5h 39m	89%	67%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	56m Atlanta	ATL 12:22 → BOS 14:49DL 1293	5h 34m	81%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON