Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:38 am at Austin)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 282 Southwest	AUS 16:05	BUR 17:25	26%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 2411 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 16:50	BUR 17:55	28%	9%	0.2%	38%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 12:10 → DEN 13:20WN 3399	2h 18m Denver	DEN 15:38 → BUR 17:13WN 1558	7h 03m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	AUS 09:25 → LAS 10:10WN 322	1h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 11:55 → BUR 13:10WN 4184	5h 45m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	AUS 12:10 → BNA 14:15WN 258	1h 25m Nashville	BNA 15:40 → BUR 17:55WN 461	7h 45m	97%	75%
Southwest Details →	AUS 11:45 → PHX 12:05WN 375	2h 05m Phoenix	PHX 14:10 → BUR 15:30WN 1680	5h 45m	96%	75%
Southwest Details →	AUS 13:15 → DEN 14:25WN 753	3h 45m Denver	DEN 18:10 → BUR 19:50WN 4174	8h 35m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	AUS 09:30 → DEN 10:40WN 4523	1h 05m Denver	DEN 11:45 → BUR 13:20WN 579	5h 50m	85%	73%
United Details →	AUS 13:33 → SFO 15:37UA 1336	2h 57m San Francisco	SFO 18:34 → BUR 20:00UA 2001	8h 27m	97%	72%
United Details →	AUS 08:40 → SFO 10:25UA 1668	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626	8h 37m	99%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 15:35 → SFO 17:24UA 442	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 18:34 → BUR 20:00UA 2001	6h 25m	69%	51%
American Details →	AUS 16:55 → DFW 18:11AA 3400 · flown by Envoy	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:00 → BUR 20:20AA 2597	5h 25m	66%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON