Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 967 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 967 AUS 05:25 → BWI 09:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3385 AUS 17:25 → BWI 21:40 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 967 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:25	BWI 09:40	4%	1%	0.2%	100%
WN 281 Southwest	AUS 05:40	BWI 09:48	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2443 Southwest	AUS 09:00	BWI 13:08	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4252 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:55	BWI 13:10	10%	2%	0.2%	79%
WN 2255 Southwest	AUS 14:35	BWI 18:42	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 285 Southwest	AUS 17:16	BWI 21:51	23%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 3385 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 17:25	BWI 21:40	24%	9%	0.6%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON