Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 579 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 579 AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 5574 AUS 19:48 → DFW 21:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 579 American Flight history →	AUS 06:00	DFW 07:19	7%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 2563 American Flight history →	AUS 05:01	DFW 06:12	7%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 862 American Flight history →	AUS 05:00	DFW 06:14	8%	4%	0.8%	66%
AA 2928 American Flight history →	AUS 07:00	DFW 08:20	10%	5%	0.8%	82%
AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 13:56	DFW 15:10	11%	5%	0.7%	90%
AA 3401 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 08:40	DFW 09:58	12%	4%	0.6%	89%
AA 512 American	AUS 07:00	DFW 08:11	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1413 American Flight history →	AUS 11:37	DFW 12:50	13%	7%	0.8%	81%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	AUS 10:42	DFW 11:56	13%	6%	0.8%	79%
AA 1067 American	AUS 08:07	DFW 09:27	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1167 American	AUS 09:24	DFW 10:38	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3726 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 15:44	DFW 16:58	16%	5%	0.6%	72%
AA 3400 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 16:55	DFW 18:11	19%	6%	0.6%	67%
AA 3402 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 18:54	DFW 20:11	19%	6%	0.7%	62%
AA 1402 American Flight history →	AUS 12:40	DFW 13:54	22%	9%	0.7%	37%
AA 1397 American Flight history →	AUS 14:44	DFW 16:03	23%	9%	0.7%	66%
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 17:40	DFW 19:05	28%	16%	0.6%	58%
AA 5574 American flown by PSA Flight history →	AUS 19:48	DFW 21:20	30%	14%	1.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON