Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: WN 656 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet today WN 656 AUS 06:40 → ELP 07:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 298 AUS 21:05 → ELP 21:35 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 22% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 656 Southwest	AUS 06:40	ELP 07:24	8%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2006 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 06:10	ELP 06:40	8%	1%	0.2%	96%
WN 785 Southwest	AUS 11:00	ELP 11:44	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2132 Southwest	AUS 17:10	ELP 17:54	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3412 Southwest	AUS 19:20	ELP 20:13	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 946 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:10	ELP 15:45	28%	6%	0.5%	48%
WN 298 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:05	ELP 21:35	33%	9%	0.5%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON